WEEK 1: 2026 SEASON
MEANFootball's Proprietary Model: Posted Wednesday at 10:30 AM
These statistical predictions may change as events develop before games. For instance, key players not playing due to injury/circumstance, other assignable causes, or abduction by little green men from Mars.
Please check back next week, when the first game is played on September 9th.
A+ POINTS™: Evidence-First NFL Predictions
A+ POINTS™
Evidence-First NFL Predictions
This is the heart of every MEANFootball™ forecast.
Each NFL matchup is ranked by projected separation, not simply by which team is expected to win. Games with the largest projected differences rise to the top, helping you quickly identify where our statistical model sees the greatest advantage.
Confidence Levels
🟢 Strong — Projected separation above the 16.3% threshold. These are the games where the model has its highest confidence.
🟡 Moderate — Meaningful projected advantage, but below the Strong threshold. Worth watching as additional information becomes available.
🔴 Close (50–50) — Very small projected separation. These games are essentially statistical toss-ups where one play, turnover, injury, or coaching decision can determine the outcome.
Built on Evidence
Every percentage shown here is generated from historical scoring performance using a transparent, repeatable statistical process. Rankings are updated throughout the week as injury reports, roster changes, and other verified information become available.
Our objective isn't to predict every game perfectly.
Our objective is to identify where the greatest statistical separation exists and present those results in a simple, understandable format.
Evidence first. Opinion second.